By 2050 the world’s population of 6 billion people may be over 8 billion or more. Will they demand the (mainly electrical) energy supplies we take for granted? If so this means a doubling or more of global electricity demand.
So how will we do it? Technology - as well as behavioural adaptations - must as always support the answer.
Australia, along with many developed countries, has committed to heroic emission reduction targets in our attempt to inhibit global warming believed attributable to increasing CO2 concentration. Currently CO2 is around 390ppm - up from pre-industrial revolution levels of around 280ppm – and rising nearly 2ppm each year.
Many believe that 450ppm or higher will lead to climate change rates beyond those which naturally occur.
But what technologies will we use to reach our pollution reduction targets? Renewables are attractive; the energy is free and abundant and they have an important role to play.
But there are two serious constraints:
• They are expensive: costs are coming down but are still much higher than base load options unless subsidised.
• They are intermittent: at best the capacity factors for solar and wind are 25% and 40% respectively. In other words they cannot meet the base load.
What are the credible low emission base load options?
• Gas: plentiful, proven, readily deployed but will become increasingly expensive.
• ‘Clean coal’ with carbon capture and storage (CCS): plentiful, expensive (relative to coal without CCS), complex with CCS yet to be proven.
• Geothermal: plentiful, remote, yet to be proven.
• Nuclear: plentiful, proven, yet to be accepted.
• Renewables with storage, plentiful, extremely expensive, complex, yet to be proven?
Making the right choices will be difficult – but ultimately crucial…
Martin Thomas AM FTSE HonFIEAust FAIE
A lifetime career in energy consulting, concluding as a Principal of Sinclair Knight Merz. Later he was founding Managing Director of the Cooperative Research Centre for Renewable Energy, ACRE.
Former external roles include Deputy Chairmanship of Australian Inland Energy, non-executive Directorships of the Tyree Group and EnviroMission, Chairmanships of industry association Austenergy; the NSW Electricity Council and the Sydney 2000 Olympic Energy Panel. He is currently Chairman of Dulhunty Power Limited (ASX:DUL), Alecto Energy Plc, the Asia Pacific International College (APIC) and Advisor to the Board of ZBB Energy.
He is a past President of Engineers Australia and of the Australian Institute of Energy and a past Vice-President of the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering. He was awarded the 2008 Peter Nicol Russell Memorial Medal, the highest award of Engineers Australia.
In 2006 Martin Thomas served as a member of the Prime Minister’s Uranium Mining, Processing and Nuclear Energy Review taskforce known as UMPNER.
|
